Overview
Since 1900, Pennsylvanians have selected the presidential candidate who won nationally 77% of the time, though their reliability in picking the winner has decreased in the past two decades.
Pennsylvanians had voted consistently Democratic in presidential elections from 1992 on, but in 2016 Donald Trump broke through the “blue wall” to narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton (by a 0.7% margin). Four years later, native son Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes—or 1.2%—and earned the state’s 20 electoral votes (now reduced to 19 after the census). That’s largely why all eyes are on Pennsylvania in 2024. Given that 10 of the past 12 presidents won there, it’s not only considered a key battleground state but also a bellwether for the ultimate outcome of the 2024 race.
Both of Pennsylvania’s Senate seats are currently held by Democrats—with longtime Senator Bob Casey Jr. in a contentious race for reelection in 2024—and nine of its 17 U.S. representatives are Democrats. The governorship has also been in Democratic hands since 2014.
Pennsylvania’s population is primarily white (74.5%), with Blacks and Hispanics accounting for 12.2% and 8.6% of residents, respectively. The state also has an older voter base than average in the U.S., with 19.6% of residents who are 65 or older (compared to the national average of 17.3%). Rural counties in the state tend to vote Republican whereas urban areas lean more Democratic, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans seven to one in Philadelphia.
In 2020 Pennsylvania was one of seven states in which pro-Trump Republicans prepared fake Electoral College certificates to obstruct the January 6, 2021, congressional proceedings to officially confirm President Biden’s Electoral College victory. The 20 fake electors signed documents with conditional language specifying that their votes should be counted only “if, as a result of a final non-appealable court order or other proceeding prescribed by law, we are ultimately recognized as being the duly elected and qualified electors.”
In July 2024, Pennsylvania sent three of its fake electors to represent the state GOP at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. While the Republican electors from Pennsylvania have not faced criminal prosecution, several played an active role in trying to upend the 2020 presidential election.
2020 Election Fallout
After President Biden was sworn in, election denialism intensified in Pennsylvania, where the far-right faction of the GOP has kept the misinformation and conspiracy theories alive, and many local officials have helped amplify the mistrust and confusion.
Election Deniers Running for Congress
In Pennsylvania, 10 candidates running to serve in the House and one aiming for a Senate seat in 2024 have spread lies or conspiracies about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election or raised doubts about the integrity of that and subsequent elections.
Election Deniers Running for Statewide Office
In Pennsylvania one election denier, State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, is running for reelection in 2024. At a January 5, 2021, “Hear Us Roar” rally on the Capitol steps in Harrisburg seeking to decertify Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, she claimed that election laws had been violated and that the 2020 election “is tarnished forever.” In May 2022, Garrity spoke at another Trump rally in Greensburg, PA, asserting, “We know that he won” in reference to the 2020 presidential election.
The governor (Democrat Josh Shapiro), attorney general (Democrat Michelle Henry), and secretary of state (Republican Al Schmidt) are collectively responsible for ensuring that elections in the state run smoothly, are fair, and accurately reflect the will of voters.
Election Deniers in the State Legislature
In Pennsylvania, at least 86 election deniers currently serve in the General Assembly—more than in any other state—accounting for 34% of the 253-person body. Almost a third of the members of the Pennsylvania House and half of the Senate support Trump’s claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Many of these election deniers hold leadership positions and a majority of seats on several of the committees that oversee election-related issues.
Election Deniers Administering Elections
Several dozen election administrators in Pennsylvania who are responsible for overseeing the process in their counties parrot Trump’s claims of a “rigged” election in 2020 and continue to spread disinformation about election integrity.
Election Deniers in GOP Leadership
As elsewhere around the country, Republicans in Pennsylvania have been at odds with one another in the wake of Trump’s 2020 electoral loss, but they have reunited more strongly in 2024.