Overview
Republicans won most of Wisconsin’s presidential elections after WWII, until Democrats began a winning streak in 1988, winning seven consecutive presidential elections through 2012.
In 2016, Donald Trump managed to break the Democratic dominance with an unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton, who lost by a razor-thin margin of 0.7%. Not a single poll had predicted Trump winning Wisconsin. Four years later, Joe Biden won the state by an equally slim margin—20,682 votes or 0.6 %—and earned its 10 electoral votes.
Both parties consider winning Wisconsin crucial in 2024. As a swing state where four of the past six presidential races were decided by less than a percentage point, Wisconsin is also one where voters chose the ultimate winner of the national race in the past four presidential elections.
Since 2010 Wisconsin’s Senate seats have been evenly split between the parties, but two-term Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is up for reelection in 2024, a seat Republicans intend to flip. Largely due to gerrymandering, five of the state’s eight U.S. representatives are Republicans. Wisconsin’s governorship has been in Democratic hands since 2018, after a decade of Republican rule during which the state became an epicenter of Tea Party conservatism.
According to the most recent census, Wisconsin’s population is primarily white (80%), with Blacks and Hispanics accounting for 6% and 7% of residents, respectively. While Wisconsinites aren’t required to specify a party affiliation when registering to vote, survey data indicates that the state’s electorate tends to be fairly evenly split between the two major parties, with a sizable number of independents.
In the weeks following the 2020 election, Wisconsin was one of seven states in which pro-Trump Republicans prepared and signed fake Electoral College certificates to obstruct the January 6, 2021, congressional proceedings that allowed President Biden to take office. The 10 fake electors from Wisconsin settled a civil lawsuit against them in December 2023 by publicly recognizing the legitimacy of Biden’s victory and disavowing their attempt to overturn the will of Wisconsin voters.
In July 2024, Wisconsin sent one of its fake electors to represent the state GOP at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
2020 Election Fallout
Election denialism took hold in Wisconsin even before President Biden’s narrow victory was confirmed. Trump allies immediately began to discredit the process and challenge the results despite lacking any evidence to support their allegations.
Election Deniers Running for Congress
In Wisconsin, six candidates (four of whom are incumbents) running for the House and one aiming for a Senate seat in 2024 have spread lies or conspiracies about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election or raised doubts about the integrity of that and subsequent elections.
Election Deniers Running for Statewide Office
No candidate currently running for statewide office in Wisconsin has questioned the results of the 2020 presidential election.
The governor (Democrat Tony Evers), attorney general (Democrat Josh Kaul), and the administrator of the Wisconsin Elections Commission (Meagan Wolfe)—a nonpartisan position appointed by the commission and confirmed by the state Senate—are collectively responsible for ensuring that elections in the state run smoothly and fairly, and accurately reflect the will of voters.
Election Deniers in the State Legislature
In Wisconsin, at least 14 election deniers currently serve in the state legislature, accounting for 11% of the 132-person body. Ten representatives—10% of the State Assembly—are deniers, as are four state senators (12% of the Senate). Some of these people hold leadership positions and seats on committees that oversee election-related issues. After the 2020 presidential election, 15 members of the Wisconsin state legislature called on then Vice President Mike Pence to ignore the Constitution and obstruct the certification of Electoral College votes at the joint session of Congress on January 6, 2021.
Election Deniers Administering Elections
Several election administrators in Wisconsin who are responsible for overseeing the process in 2024 parrot Trump’s claims of a “rigged” election in 2020 and continue to spread disinformation about election integrity.
Election Deniers in GOP Leadership
As elsewhere around the country, Republicans in Wisconsin were at odds with one another in the wake of Trump’s 2020 electoral loss, but they have reunited in their urgency to win in 2024.