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Arizona

Overview

Historically, Arizonans voted Republican in all presidential elections but one between 1952 and 2020. Yet given rapid changes in demographics, trends have begun to shift, with voters electing Democrats to both of the state’s Senate seats (in 2018 and 2022), along with its first Democratic governor in 16 years (in 2022). 

In 2020 President Biden won the state of Arizona by a narrow margin—initially by as little as 10,000 votes, but ultimately, after multiple hand recounts and the infamous Cyber Ninjas “audit,” the margin increased to 45,469 votes (or 0.3%). Then Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (a Democrat who has served as governor since 2023) certified Biden’s victory on Nov. 30, 2020, confirming that he had won the state’s 11 Electoral College votes. 

Roughly a dozen people with ties to Arizona have been charged for their roles in the attack on the Capitol—including the ”QAnon Shaman,” Jacob Chansley, who was sentenced to more than three years in prison. Four members of Congress from Arizona were among the 147 congressional Republicans who voted against certifying the 2020 election on Jan. 6, 2021. 

Even though Arizona voters rejected all three election deniers who were running for statewide offices in 2022—Kari Lake for governor, Mark Finchem for secretary of state, and Abe Hamadeh for attorney general—election denialism remains problematic, with more than a third of elected officials serving in the the state legislature in that camp).

In 2024, 14 candidates running for Congress (including Lake and Hamadeh) still insist that the 2020 presidential election was stolen and more than a dozen county election officials throughout the state support the Big Lie. Most Republican Party leaders continue to parrot Trump’s claims of a “rigged” election, and more than a third of state legislators are election deniers.

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